Jan 082019

At first glance, this chart suggests good news about volatility. But, it is of course still quite high.

CBOE Volatility Index Chart

It’s my understanding that just like the US Treasury Yield Curve, the various option maturity dates are showing at least somewhat of a pricing inversion. In other words, the premium for the options maturing relative soon are more expensive than the further out maturities. This is inconsistent with normal pricing expectations.

What does it mean? It could be a sign of a recession or another indication of the impact the various uncertainties are having on the market in the short term.

As usual, time will tell!

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