Month: March 2019

  • Yield Curve Inversion

    There has been quite the conversation regarding the inversion of the Yield Curve between the short term US Treasury Bills versus the 10 year US Treasury Note. In essence, it appears to strongly suggest that a recession is eminent. However this morning, Axios had a blurb regarding the 2 year US Treasury note yield versus […]

  • Prime Age to Employment Ratio

    This looks like a really solid recover since the “Great Recession”! It looks like this employment ratio is back to its 2009 peak, but it still has a way to go to get back to its late 1990s level. To me, it just seems unlikely that wage growth acceleration won’t be coming soon. The real […]

  • Wage Growth versus S&P 500 Profit Growth

    This chart was on Axios earlier this week. I think this is could be one of the reasons for the ongoing challenge between capital and labor since the ‘Great Recession’. Clearly the recovery in Profits of 10.1% versus Wages of 3.3% is significant. However, this is part of a much longer term trend. Whether it […]

  • Gross Domestic Product Update

    The following Wall Street Journal Chart shows the US GDP through year end 2018. It appears that Tariff related Import and Export activity in Mid-2018 was responsible for the 2nd and 3rd Quarter bumps.